时间:2024-11-22 00:47:33 来源:网络整理编辑:探索
The Atlantic Ocean is currently hurricane fuel. Thanks to, among other factors, unusually warm sea s
The Atlantic Ocean is currently hurricane fuel.
Thanks to, among other factors, unusually warm sea surface temperatures, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) now expects "an extremely active" Atlantic hurricane season, bumped up from the agency's earlier prediction of "above normal" activity. In an announcement Thursday, NOAA said this storm prediction is "one of the most active seasonal forecasts that NOAA has produced in its 22-year history of hurricane outlooks."
Already, the 2020 season has broken numerous records for the number of storms formed by this time of year. Now, the most active time of year is just around the corner, as most hurricanes form from about mid-August through late October.
Critically, more storms amp the odds of hurricanes striking land.
"In general, more active hurricane seasons have more landing hurricanes," Philip Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University, told Mashable in late April.
Colorado State's updated storm outlook is similar to NOAA's, but expects a little bit more activity. The university predicts 12 hurricanes and five major hurricanes (111 mph winds or higher), whereas NOAA expects between seven and 11 hurricanes, three to six of which could be major storms.
"This year, we expect more, stronger, and longer-lived storms than average, and our predicted ACE [Accumulated Cyclone Energy] range extends well above NOAA’s threshold for an extremely active season," NOAA’s lead seasonal hurricane forecaster, Gerry Bell, said in a statement. ACE is the measure of a season's total storm activity.
Tweet may have been deleted
Tweet may have been deleted
The big contributors to the extremely active season are:
Warmer than usual ocean temperatures. "Ocean temperatures in the Atlantic are running much warmer than normal," Brian Tang, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Albany, told Mashable in July. Warmer oceans fuel tropical storms as more water naturally evaporates into the air, giving storms energy and moisture to intensify. Overall, global oceans are absorbing nearly unfathomable amounts of heat as they soak up over 90 percent of the warmth created by human-caused climate change. (The ocean's surface has warmed by nearly 2 degrees Fahrenheit, or 1 degree Celsius, since 1900.)
What's more, the Atlantic Ocean has also naturally been in a warmer phase since around 1995, something called the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation. This added warmth creates more ideal conditions for hurricanes to form.
Hurricane scientists don't expect strong east-driving winds blowing through the Caribbean this year. These winds pummel hurricanes (called "wind shear"). "It shears or tears apart storms," Klotzbach told Mashable.
A strong West African monsoon season is likely this year. Most powerful Atlantic hurricanes are seeded by unstable air and thunderstorms traveling west from Africa. More clouds and storm activity in West Africa are linked to favorable conditions for hurricanes.
A number of potent hurricane ingredients, then, have combined in 2020. Importantly, when thunderstorms do start journeying over the part of the Atlantic where most hurricanes form (called the Atlantic Main Development Region), they'll get a boost from well-above average ocean temperatures. This area is about 1 degree Fahrenheit warmer than usual — which is a big change for the oceans.
"That extra degree makes it more likely the thunderstorms will survive going across the Atlantic," Chris Slocum, a research meteorologist at the NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research, told Mashable in July.
In Earth's warmer future over the coming decades and beyond, hurricane researchers don't expect more hurricanes overall. However, they expect hurricanes to grow more intense, meaning higher wind speeds and more damaging and dangerous storms.
"We think there will be an uptick in the most intense storms," said the University of Albany's Tang.
Two states took big steps this week to get rid of the tampon tax2024-11-22 00:07
《陌路情徒》京津地區新聞發布會1.7日圓滿舉行2024-11-22 00:07
東方衛視《2019閱文原創文學風雲盛典》今晚播出2024-11-21 23:59
抖音直播群星寵粉夜完美收官 口碑爆棚引好評2024-11-21 23:56
Tyler, the Creator helped Frank Ocean celebrate 'Blonde' release in a delicious way2024-11-21 23:41
《狐蹤諜影》即將上映 安琥帶你玩轉誰是內奸 ?2024-11-21 23:40
2020冰雪溫泉東北賽區新聞資料2024-11-21 23:30
輔樂文化傾力承辦網易逆水寒音樂會,未來創新試水全產業化發展2024-11-21 23:23
Fyvush Finkel, Emmy winner for 'Picket Fences,' dies at 932024-11-21 23:01
看了朱一龍畫了錦鯉,恨不得現在立刻馬上就過年 !2024-11-21 22:56
Fiji wins first2024-11-22 00:40
荒木由美子出席品牌發布會 個人皮包品牌在上海高島屋獨家首發2024-11-21 23:58
虛擬偶像現身唐探3發布會,中國絆愛本土化新定義2024-11-21 23:54
全能藝人許魏洲亮相“抖音直播群星寵粉夜” ,在線測頸圍逗笑粉絲2024-11-21 23:53
You can now play 'Solitaire' and 'Tic2024-11-21 23:26
張彬彬亮相“抖音直播群星寵粉夜” ,現場贈送粉絲新年好禮2024-11-21 23:20
《野畫冊》漫畫(完整版)2024-11-21 22:53
王者登頂!太極門孔德祥勇奪《功夫王中王》第三季總冠軍 !2024-11-21 22:52
Singapore rolls out video2024-11-21 22:41
荒木由美子出席品牌發布會 個人皮包品牌在上海高島屋獨家首發2024-11-21 22:29