时间:2024-11-21 23:58:02 来源:网络整理编辑:綜合
The Atlantic Ocean is currently hurricane fuel. Thanks to, among other factors, unusually warm sea s
The Atlantic Ocean is currently hurricane fuel.
Thanks to, among other factors, unusually warm sea surface temperatures, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) now expects "an extremely active" Atlantic hurricane season, bumped up from the agency's earlier prediction of "above normal" activity. In an announcement Thursday, NOAA said this storm prediction is "one of the most active seasonal forecasts that NOAA has produced in its 22-year history of hurricane outlooks."
Already, the 2020 season has broken numerous records for the number of storms formed by this time of year. Now, the most active time of year is just around the corner, as most hurricanes form from about mid-August through late October.
Critically, more storms amp the odds of hurricanes striking land.
"In general, more active hurricane seasons have more landing hurricanes," Philip Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University, told Mashable in late April.
Colorado State's updated storm outlook is similar to NOAA's, but expects a little bit more activity. The university predicts 12 hurricanes and five major hurricanes (111 mph winds or higher), whereas NOAA expects between seven and 11 hurricanes, three to six of which could be major storms.
"This year, we expect more, stronger, and longer-lived storms than average, and our predicted ACE [Accumulated Cyclone Energy] range extends well above NOAA’s threshold for an extremely active season," NOAA’s lead seasonal hurricane forecaster, Gerry Bell, said in a statement. ACE is the measure of a season's total storm activity.
Tweet may have been deleted
Tweet may have been deleted
The big contributors to the extremely active season are:
Warmer than usual ocean temperatures. "Ocean temperatures in the Atlantic are running much warmer than normal," Brian Tang, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Albany, told Mashable in July. Warmer oceans fuel tropical storms as more water naturally evaporates into the air, giving storms energy and moisture to intensify. Overall, global oceans are absorbing nearly unfathomable amounts of heat as they soak up over 90 percent of the warmth created by human-caused climate change. (The ocean's surface has warmed by nearly 2 degrees Fahrenheit, or 1 degree Celsius, since 1900.)
What's more, the Atlantic Ocean has also naturally been in a warmer phase since around 1995, something called the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation. This added warmth creates more ideal conditions for hurricanes to form.
Hurricane scientists don't expect strong east-driving winds blowing through the Caribbean this year. These winds pummel hurricanes (called "wind shear"). "It shears or tears apart storms," Klotzbach told Mashable.
A strong West African monsoon season is likely this year. Most powerful Atlantic hurricanes are seeded by unstable air and thunderstorms traveling west from Africa. More clouds and storm activity in West Africa are linked to favorable conditions for hurricanes.
A number of potent hurricane ingredients, then, have combined in 2020. Importantly, when thunderstorms do start journeying over the part of the Atlantic where most hurricanes form (called the Atlantic Main Development Region), they'll get a boost from well-above average ocean temperatures. This area is about 1 degree Fahrenheit warmer than usual — which is a big change for the oceans.
"That extra degree makes it more likely the thunderstorms will survive going across the Atlantic," Chris Slocum, a research meteorologist at the NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research, told Mashable in July.
In Earth's warmer future over the coming decades and beyond, hurricane researchers don't expect more hurricanes overall. However, they expect hurricanes to grow more intense, meaning higher wind speeds and more damaging and dangerous storms.
"We think there will be an uptick in the most intense storms," said the University of Albany's Tang.
Honda's all2024-11-21 23:40
足協已對砸玻璃事件展開調查 違紀者被追責追罰在所難免2024-11-21 22:56
官方 :C羅當選曼聯本賽季最佳球員 生涯第四次獲獎2024-11-21 22:53
王長慶:鄭錚紅牌是連帶動作徐新是惡意的 性質不一樣2024-11-21 22:31
Chinese gymnastics team horrifies crowd with human jump rope2024-11-21 22:09
最新足壇身價榜TOP10:姆巴佩居首 皇馬僅一將入圍2024-11-21 22:04
林良銘 :梅開二度 送自己最好的生日禮物2024-11-21 21:46
郝偉 :費萊尼吉翔很難出場 克雷桑狀態比較差2024-11-21 21:42
Donald Trump's tangled web of Russian influence2024-11-21 21:39
熱身賽也瘋狂!內馬爾遭遇砍鯊戰術 5戰日本造10球2024-11-21 21:19
'The Flying Bum' aircraft crashes during second test flight2024-11-21 23:57
上海海港官方:恩迪亞耶結束隔離 歸隊參與合練2024-11-21 23:42
粵媒:廣州城首輪慘敗 本賽季保級壓力空前巨大2024-11-21 23:15
胡靖航回複徐新 :看得出來不是故意的 場上碰撞是難免的2024-11-21 23:05
WhatsApp announces plans to share user data with Facebook2024-11-21 22:43
伊卡爾迪自宣留巴黎 :進了200球 人們終於知道我是誰2024-11-21 22:14
銳體育:曼城領先1步吃進鋒線2人 離隊3選1你PICK誰2024-11-21 22:02
海港首戰輸球 滬媒:俱樂部需反思賽場下的管理2024-11-21 21:50
Despite IOC ban, Rio crowds get their political messages across2024-11-21 21:28
海港主帥:球隊還需要42024-11-21 21:18