您的当前位置:首页 >綜合 >【】Euro may have just surrendered 正文
时间:2025-07-19 08:53:14 来源:网络整理编辑:綜合
For days, a war has been raging between two of the premiere computer models used to help predict the
For days, a war has been raging between two of the premiere computer models used to help predict the weather. On the one side, there's the National Weather Service's Global Forecast System, or GFS, which has maintained that a tropical wave moving across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola will not intensify into a hurricane and strike Florida this weekend. 。
But other models have consistently outshone the GFS in both routine and high impact, high risk forecast situations.。
On the other side of the battle is the European, or Euro model, which is run by the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting in England. 。
SEE ALSO:The Weather Service is getting better supercomputers 。The Euro, which gained notoriety by catching on to Hurricane Sandy's unprecedented and catastrophic left hook into New Jersey a week in advance, has rattled Florida with its depiction of an intense tropical storm or hurricane hitting the southern part of the state this weekend.。
Run after run, the Euro had stuck to its guns for the past three days, insisting that the area of inclement weather designated as "Invest 99L" would soon become Hurricane Hermine, potentially going on to menace Gulf Coastal states as a major hurricane of Category 3 intensity or greater.。
The battlefield may have just changed significantly, though. It's unclear if a peace treaty has been signed, or if this is just a temporary lull in the fighting, but the afternoon run of the Euro model trended toward the GFS solution of a weaker storm.。
In other words, it is no longer showing an intense storm hitting Florida on Sunday, and then intensifying over the unusually warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. 。
Thanks for signing up!。
This news is being met with cautious relief on social media. For example, Miami NBC-TV meteorologist John Morales welcomed the new computer model trend.。
Ya’ll have no idea how much better this makes me feel. https://t.co/puc8tSFn7O 。
Ya’ll have no idea how much better this makes me feel. https://t.co/puc8tSFn7O。
— John Morales (JohnmoralesNBC6) August 25, 2016。
Weather Channel meteorologist Justin Abraham comically celebrated what he sees as a potential GFS victory over the top-seeded European model. 。
Euro trending toward the GFS with #99L... Could the GFS have been right all along? pic.twitter.com/1apoAeHfpa。
— Justin Abraham (jjabraham) August 25, 2016。
However, Floridians shouldn't let down their guard yet, since the swirling cloud mass located north of Haiti could still persevere despite two main challenges. 。
Tweet may have been deleted。
Invest 99L has been contending with layers of dry air that have stifled the development of thunderstorms near the center of the storm. Such thunderstorms are needed in order for the weather system to form a closed area of low pressure at the surface and intensify.。
The wind shear is forecast to diminish starting in about 24 to 36 hours, at which point it's possible both the Euro and GFS will be wrong, and the storm will intensify rapidly.。
"Although upper-level winds are not conducive for significant development during the next day or so, they could become a little more favorable over the weekend or early next week when the wave is expected to approach southern Florida or the southeastern Gulf of Mexico," the National Hurricane Center said in a 2 p.m. ET statement on the weather system.。
The Hurricane Center lowered Invest 99L's chances of developing into a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane to 70 percent through 5 days, down from 80 percent earlier in the day. 。
Tweet may have been deleted 。
For now, Invest 99L looks like a poor excuse for a tropical weather system that is inspiring trepidation in a coastal state like Florida. Its center is exposed and comprised only of low-level clouds, and the largest thunderstorms are displaced several hundred miles away from the center. 。
In short, it looks like garbage, from a tropical meteorology perspective. 。Whether it turns into something more impressive remains to be seen, but for now, it's encouraging that the great model war of August 2016 may be coming to an end.。Man stumbles upon his phone background in real life2025-07-19 08:21
曼城官方:已就哈蘭德轉會達成協議 球員將於7月1日加盟2025-07-19 08:11
定了 !曝曼城本周官宣哈蘭德 解約金接近6000萬歐2025-07-19 07:46
曼城爭冠蒙陰影 !防線三將報銷 利物浦迎來轉機 ?2025-07-19 06:53
Tourist survives for month in frozen New Zealand wilderness after partner dies2025-07-19 06:51
累心 !曝弗格森與C羅談未來 力勸愛徒再留曼聯1年2025-07-19 06:48
韓媒:與華麗的外表不同的是 中國足球內部已傷痕累累2025-07-19 06:43
拜仁VS斯圖加特首發 :萊萬穆勒領鋒線 薩內缺席2025-07-19 06:40
PlayStation Now game streaming is coming to PC2025-07-19 06:27
亞運會延期韓國U23國足麵臨難題 部分球員或超齡無法免除兵役2025-07-19 06:08
Singapore gets world's first driverless taxis2025-07-19 08:40
曝足協將開會研究歸還引援調節費 金額超過十億2025-07-19 08:17
博格巴五下家難定 :巴黎尤文情兩難 皇馬巴薩替誰2025-07-19 08:06
遭球迷譏諷不配曼聯球衣 B費 :我們今天的確不配2025-07-19 07:48
More than half of women in advertising have faced sexual harassment, report says2025-07-19 07:35
曼城標價6000萬歐出售熱蘇斯 一進一出哈蘭德≈0?2025-07-19 07:12
U19國青集訓名單:領隊邵佳一 瑞士留洋小將在列2025-07-19 06:50
拜仁總監會麵馬內經紀人 或拿格納布裏與紅軍交換2025-07-19 06:48
Aly Raisman catches Simone Biles napping on a plane like a champion2025-07-19 06:42
玩梗!球迷 :能在曼聯進24球 是C羅生涯最大成就2025-07-19 06:16