您的当前位置:首页 >綜合 >【】Euro may have just surrendered 正文
时间:2025-01-18 15:37:59 来源:网络整理编辑:綜合
For days, a war has been raging between two of the premiere computer models used to help predict the
For days, a war has been raging between two of the premiere computer models used to help predict the weather. On the one side, there's the National Weather Service's Global Forecast System, or GFS, which has maintained that a tropical wave moving across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola will not intensify into a hurricane and strike Florida this weekend.。
But other models have consistently outshone the GFS in both routine and high impact, high risk forecast situations.。
On the other side of the battle is the European, or Euro model, which is run by the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting in England. 。
SEE ALSO:The Weather Service is getting better supercomputers 。The Euro, which gained notoriety by catching on to Hurricane Sandy's unprecedented and catastrophic left hook into New Jersey a week in advance, has rattled Florida with its depiction of an intense tropical storm or hurricane hitting the southern part of the state this weekend.。
Run after run, the Euro had stuck to its guns for the past three days, insisting that the area of inclement weather designated as "Invest 99L" would soon become Hurricane Hermine, potentially going on to menace Gulf Coastal states as a major hurricane of Category 3 intensity or greater. 。
The battlefield may have just changed significantly, though. It's unclear if a peace treaty has been signed, or if this is just a temporary lull in the fighting, but the afternoon run of the Euro model trended toward the GFS solution of a weaker storm. 。
In other words, it is no longer showing an intense storm hitting Florida on Sunday, and then intensifying over the unusually warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.。
Thanks for signing up!。
This news is being met with cautious relief on social media. For example, Miami NBC-TV meteorologist John Morales welcomed the new computer model trend. 。
Ya’ll have no idea how much better this makes me feel. https://t.co/puc8tSFn7O。
Ya’ll have no idea how much better this makes me feel. https://t.co/puc8tSFn7O 。
— John Morales (JohnmoralesNBC6) August 25, 2016。
Weather Channel meteorologist Justin Abraham comically celebrated what he sees as a potential GFS victory over the top-seeded European model.。
Euro trending toward the GFS with #99L... Could the GFS have been right all along? pic.twitter.com/1apoAeHfpa 。
— Justin Abraham (jjabraham) August 25, 2016。
However, Floridians shouldn't let down their guard yet, since the swirling cloud mass located north of Haiti could still persevere despite two main challenges.。
Tweet may have been deleted。
Invest 99L has been contending with layers of dry air that have stifled the development of thunderstorms near the center of the storm. Such thunderstorms are needed in order for the weather system to form a closed area of low pressure at the surface and intensify.。
The wind shear is forecast to diminish starting in about 24 to 36 hours, at which point it's possible both the Euro and GFS will be wrong, and the storm will intensify rapidly.。
"Although upper-level winds are not conducive for significant development during the next day or so, they could become a little more favorable over the weekend or early next week when the wave is expected to approach southern Florida or the southeastern Gulf of Mexico," the National Hurricane Center said in a 2 p.m. ET statement on the weather system. 。
The Hurricane Center lowered Invest 99L's chances of developing into a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane to 70 percent through 5 days, down from 80 percent earlier in the day.。
Tweet may have been deleted。
For now, Invest 99L looks like a poor excuse for a tropical weather system that is inspiring trepidation in a coastal state like Florida. Its center is exposed and comprised only of low-level clouds, and the largest thunderstorms are displaced several hundred miles away from the center. 。
In short, it looks like garbage, from a tropical meteorology perspective.。Whether it turns into something more impressive remains to be seen, but for now, it's encouraging that the great model war of August 2016 may be coming to an end.。This coloring book is here for all your relationship goals2025-01-18 15:36
再釀慘案?韓媒 :蔚山現代必須贏廣州隊 且要多進球2025-01-18 15:05
揭秘中乙現狀:試訓一次5000通過了才能返回2025-01-18 15:00
德比郡降級 !魯尼:這都是老板的鍋 真他*的太難了2025-01-18 14:30
Tourist survives for month in frozen New Zealand wilderness after partner dies2025-01-18 14:19
再釀慘案?韓媒:蔚山現代必須贏廣州隊 且要多進球2025-01-18 14:15
老實了?昔日小三私聊伊卡爾迪 二弟立馬截圖旺達2025-01-18 13:50
再釀慘案 ?韓媒 :蔚山現代必須贏廣州隊 且要多進球2025-01-18 13:19
Honda's all2025-01-18 12:55
歸來 !莫伊塞斯曬隔離酒店視頻:我已回到中國2025-01-18 12:54
Man stumbles upon his phone background in real life2025-01-18 15:37
2022東亞杯改在日本進行 中國男女足前往參賽2025-01-18 15:14
哈維:過去一周對巴薩太糟糕 正式和西甲冠軍拜拜2025-01-18 14:50
韓喬生:亞足聯新賽季嚴打欠薪 敦促足協盡快解決問題2025-01-18 14:16
Is Samsung's Galaxy Note7 really the best phone?2025-01-18 14:00
來了!名記曝滕哈格即將簽約曼聯 擁有引援決策權2025-01-18 13:59
多特將貝林厄姆視為球隊新核心 利物浦皇馬欲挖角2025-01-18 13:58
巴黎官方:梅西左跟腱發炎 未來兩天內將評估傷勢2025-01-18 13:24
Give your kitchen sponge a rest on this adorable bed2025-01-18 13:22
新賽季第12筆引援!官方 :馬曉磊租借加盟四川九牛2025-01-18 13:20