时间:2025-04-26 20:29:15 来源:网络整理编辑:熱點
There's no doubt that hurricanes are complicated beasts with complex origins. But following the Atla
There's no doubt that hurricanes are complicated beasts with complex origins.
But following the Atlantic's extremely active 2017 hurricane season, a group of scientists at Princeton University's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory have identified a connection between the six major hurricanes -- with winds over 110 mph -- that churned in the ocean, three of which pummeled the U.S.
All were supercharged by unusually warm waters, and these warm conditions outweighed other weather factors.
This research -- published on Thursday in the journal Science-- has significant climate change implications, as the world is expected to continue its accelerating warming trend.
Critically, over 90 percent of the accumulating heat on Earth is absorbed by the planet's oceans.
"Global warming is really ocean warming," NASA oceanographer Josh Willis said.
Hurricanes feed off warm waters. It's their fuel. But still, warm waters alone don't stoke hurricanes.
SEE ALSO:How flocks of birds got trapped inside the eye of Hurricane FlorenceTo pinpoint the factors that drove the 2017 hurricane season, the Princeton scientists used a sophisticated climate computing model to simulate the different wide-scale weather conditions on Earth. This is no easy task. Any hurricane season has a number of influences that may propel, or dampen, the storm season or any particular storm.
"It's quite complicated, there’s many moving parts," Colin Zarzycki, a storm scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research who had no role in the study, said in an interview. "It's not just ocean temperature. It's kind of a big tangled web."
But even so, after simulating different weather conditions, it became clear that other major climate factors -- like cooling in the Pacific waters -- were overpowered by the effects of the unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic.
The increase in 2017 hurricanes was caused "mainly by pronounced warm sea surface conditions in the tropical North Atlantic," the researchers wrote.
But there was another critical factor driving these storms.
"The key point is that the Atlantic was warmer than other open oceans all over the world," the study's lead author, Hiroyuki Murakami, said in an interview.
This caused more warm air to rise up into the sky over the Atlantic, making the atmosphere more unstable -- and ripe for tumultuous storm activity.
In short, the Atlantic ocean got an "extra kick" from all this rising motion, Hugh Willoughby, a hurricane scientist at Florida International University, said over email.
"As a result, thunderstorms that feed hurricanes become stronger," said Willoughby.
The Atlantic wasn't just warm -- it was much warmer than Earth's other oceans. But regardless, just having unusually warm waters in the Atlantic is still going to fuel powerful storms.
"When you get an ocean basin that gets warm like that, it really primes the atmosphere to be conducive to these strong storms," said Zarzycki. "When you boil it down, with warmer atmosphere and sea surface temperatures, under ideal conditions we would expect storms to be stronger."
That said, Zarzycki underscores that other weather factors -- like strong wind shear that pummels and weakens hurricanes -- can weaken or tear apart any storm. But without these weakening factors, hurricanes can really ignite -- as they did in 2017.
Going forward, what might this all mean for the future storm activity? Should we expect more major hurricanes?
In future decades, perhaps by 2080, warming oceans may boost the count of major storms in the Atlantic during a busy season from six to eight, said Murakami. This means more opportunities for giant storms to hit the U.S. coast.
But in the next 10 years, he can't say if warmer oceans might generate more major hurricanes. Weather patterns, or natural variability, are just too unpredictable.
"It remains uncertain as to whether we will see more frequent active hurricane seasons like 2017 in the upcoming decade due to the dominant influence of natural variability," Murakami said.
For example, there's a major climate trend running on 30-year timescales called the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, that can warm or cool vast swaths of the Atlantic, said Willoughby.
Saharan dust from Africa also blows over the ocean, which can cool the waters, he said. And there are major influences from the Pacific Ocean that can drive down wind shear in the Atlantic.
"All of these well-established oceanic vacillations make it harder to define the long-term warming caused by us humans," said Willoughby.
So, it's complicated.
But one thing is much more certain: Warm oceans fueled the Atlantic's extremely active 2017 season. And overall, we can expect more warm water.
Dog elected for third term as mayor of Minnesota town2025-04-26 19:52
國足目標先擊敗菲律賓 李鐵避談對手大量增加歸化球員2025-04-26 19:50
曝皮爾洛隻剩一場比賽救贖 都靈德比不勝或被解雇2025-04-26 19:34
前國腳之子上演網壇職業首秀 夢想贏得溫網登上世界第一2025-04-26 19:22
This app is giving streaming TV news a second try2025-04-26 19:00
冬窗延長難阻中國足壇球員失業潮 近400人麵臨丟飯碗2025-04-26 18:43
紅軍名宿:若索帥沒帶隊拿到歐聯冠軍 曼聯會解雇他2025-04-26 18:25
阿蘭 :國家對我非常好 我應該珍惜為國效力的機會2025-04-26 18:23
'The Flying Bum' aircraft crashes during second test flight2025-04-26 17:59
前南通支雲球員祝一帆討薪:盼足協為自己主持公道2025-04-26 17:50
U.S. pole vaulter skids to a halt for national anthem2025-04-26 20:28
尤文危機!皮爾洛公開承認無能為力 或隨時下課2025-04-26 20:17
曝有泰州遠大球員遭欠薪後沒錢生孩子 房貸還不上2025-04-26 20:16
德轉確認吉翔以自由身加盟山東泰山 合約至2025年2025-04-26 20:05
This 'sh*tpost' bot makes terrible memes so you don't have to2025-04-26 19:47
河北精英俱樂部已更名河北功夫 新賽季有望遞補進中乙2025-04-26 19:31
曝蘇寧主力後衛選擇直接退役 拒絕多支中超球隊邀約2025-04-26 18:35
C羅女友帶四娃坐私人飛機出行 迷你羅越長越像爸2025-04-26 18:33
Early Apple2025-04-26 18:23
巴薩今夏不換帥!科曼提出五大要求 首名新援已定2025-04-26 18:02