时间:2024-09-20 08:05:51 来源:网络整理编辑:娛樂
The future of the blockchain is dark. A new protocol has launched on the Ethereum blockchain that al
The future of the blockchain is dark.
A new protocol has launched on the Ethereum blockchain that allows people to create and place bets on real-world events — i.e., prediction markets. And you better believe that a so-called "assassination market" for Donald Trump has already popped up.
Created by the non-profit Forecast Foundation, the open-source Augur protocol launched on July 9 and promised a revolution in the world of prediction markets. While the idea of a prediction market is itself not new, creating a decentralized version of that market on the Ethereum blockchain is. Theoretically, it means that whatever markets users decide to create are out of the control of any one organization.
SEE ALSO:Poorly attended blockchain conference offers much-needed reality checkIn other words, once the markets are up, they're up.
"Decentralized technology means decentralized control," explains the Augur site, "no one person can single-handedly change Augur or shut it down."
It still potentially incentivizes a crime, as anyone who could accurately predict the president's death would stand to gain financially.
So, you can place bets on, say, "Will SpaceX successfully complete a manned flight beyond Earth orbit by the end of 2018?" If you think the answer to that question is "yes," you can buy shares with ether to that effect. If you don't think it's going to happen, you can short the bet by selling shares. If your prediction comes true, you stand to profit.
Enter the assassination market. We saw an early incarnation of this idea back in 2013, when, Forbes reports, an online marketplace was created to crowdfund the deaths of Barack Obama and Ben Bernanke with bitcoin. The latest version is different in that it's simply a beton whether Donald Trump will be killed by a certain date. Slightly less ghastly, but it still potentially incentivizes a crime, as anyone who could accurately predict the president's death would stand to gain financially.
Looking at the marketplace on July 23, there was one specific market created on this very topic. the market "Will Donald Trump ( President of The USA) be killed at any point during 2018" had some takers at the time this reporter came across it.
Notably, while today that market appeared at first to be inaccessible and returned an error page, an Augur spokesperson confirmed that it is indeed still live.
"That market is still live," wrote the spokesperson over email — eventually providing a working link to the market.
What's more, at the time of this writing, a similar market had also sprung up. Although no trades have yet to be completed on "Will DJT survive 2018," one person had put in a "yes" bid.
Also not good.Credit: Screenshot/augurKeep in mind, the Forecast Foundation explicitly says that the specific markets are out of its control.
"The Forecast Foundation and the people who’ve written the Augur protocol code don’t create markets on the Augur protocol itself, they do not perform trades, or have the ability to monitor, control, censor, or modify any actions performed on the Augur protocol," reads the project's FAQ page.
We emailed the Augur team in an attempt to determine what, if anything, it could or would do to remove these kinds of markets going forward, and whether the Augur protocol would pay out on assassination markets. Unfortunately, we did not receive answers as of press time.
But this problem likely didn't catch the Forecast Foundation by surprise. There is a mechanism built into Augur which allows so-called "reporters" (people who are designated to officially say how the predicted event turned out, and are incentivized to tell the truth via the Augur REP token) to call a market "invalid." If that happens, then, at least in theory, no money will be paid out.
No trades yet.Credit: screenshot/augurIn other words, you wouldn't be able to collect on an assassination market — even if you called the death accurately. This should, in theory, render the assassination market aspect of Augur void. That is, if would-be killers understand the complexities of Augur's reporting mechanisms.
Which, well, maybe that's not something we should be betting lives on.
Correction: July 24, 2018, 3:41 p.m. PDT A previous version of this article incorrectly stated that Augur removed the "Will Donald Trump ( President of The USA) be killed at any point during 2018" assassination market. An Augur spokesperson has contacted Mashable to clarify that the market is still live, and was in fact just "likely censored" by "a third party like predictions.global." You can, in fact, still place bets on whether or not the president will be assassinated.
TopicsCryptocurrencyDonald Trump
Dressage horse dancing to 'Smooth' by Santana wins gold for chillest horse2024-09-20 07:54
歐冠首輪9大看點 :梅西、內馬爾 、姆巴佩最強三叉戟迎首秀(本澤馬西甲數據)2024-09-20 07:51
場均4.25失誤 ,保羅的總決賽表現配得上曆史前三嗎 ?(保羅最接近總冠軍的一次)2024-09-20 07:46
意甲:薩索洛 VS 那不勒斯 ,薩索洛成手下敗將?2024-09-20 07:40
Olympic security asks female Iranian fan to drop protest sign2024-09-20 07:28
突發 !詹姆斯因傷退賽 ,無緣衝擊MVP ,首發5大球星缺席+傷退(詹姆斯全明星隊五連勝)2024-09-20 07:27
原因導致保羅執意要頂薪 ,而杜蘭特卻能甘願降薪留隊(保羅有冠軍嗎)2024-09-20 07:10
【波盈足球】 健身工廠辦足賽 楠梓球場好熱鬧 ( 菁英,足球 )2024-09-20 06:43
We asked linguists if Donald Trump speaks like that on purpose2024-09-20 06:13
塔克0分奪冠 比保羅哈登更配這枚戒指 世界需要給平凡人一點希望(保羅的防守能排後衛第幾)2024-09-20 05:34
Here's what 'Game of Thrones' actors get up to between takes2024-09-20 07:58
意媒:下賽季意甲2022年8月14日開賽 ,2023年6月4日結束2024-09-20 07:57
2023.01.31 昨夜今晨 意甲 比賽集錦!2024-09-20 07:37
補時第3分鍾烏龍絕殺 ,阿森納42024-09-20 07:29
Fiji wins first2024-09-20 07:03
2023年2月18日周六賽事分析 狼隊VS伯恩茅斯 ! !2024-09-20 06:18
2023年2月19日周日 英超 曼聯vs萊切斯特 賽事分析2024-09-20 06:13
意媒 :下賽季意甲2022年8月14日開賽 ,2023年6月4日結束2024-09-20 06:07
Daughter gives her 1002024-09-20 05:33
比肩梅西,超越C羅!本澤馬1戰6奇跡 ,利物浦球迷折服鼓掌(本澤馬在皇馬的搭檔)2024-09-20 05:26